A Brexit Conversation
Stephen started a conversation with me over a private Twitter chat the other day and I wanted to share it here (with his permission of course). I think it provides a pretty good snapshot not just of what the hell is going on over here, but also of how I feel about all of this mess at this time in my life.
This isn't a verbatim copy/paste, as I've tried to fix grammar, spelling, and message sequence where appropriate.
Third loss???? WTF is going on over there?
It's what you get when you put a few hundred people in the House who consider their own careers (and personal interests) above the country and its citizens.
- The people were idiots and voted to leave (barely)
- The new PM decides that 51% is a mandate and does her best to get a smooth exit
- She spends 2 years fighting with her own party and not consulting the opposition about what sort of deal the UK wants, then goes to Brussels where she's treated as the UK deserved to be treated: a 2nd-rate country based on a tiny island off the coast of a massive economy, suffering from delusions of empire.
- She returns with the best possible deal she was ever going to get (considering that she wasn't interested in doing anything the opposition wanted)
- That deal is rejected by the opposition (duh)
- It's also rejected by most of her own party because she's surrounded herself with disaster capitalists, hard brexiters, and a few remainers.
- The deal won't pass
- The alternatives won't pass
- The default is no-deal
- No deal means we are seriously fucked: food shortages, blockades, population exchanges... the whole thing. The House is playing with fire and doesn't give two shits who gets burned.
Ah but the house voted against no deal lol
Yep looks like you're fucked
Yeah don't remind me. Honestly, I was happy to have this country go up in flames, but now that I've got a kid here (who still doesn't have a passport (we're waiting on the government) I can't conceive of a way to get us out -- smoothly or otherwise.
To give you a rough Idea, I plotted on Google Maps the other day, the route to Dover on foot -- assuming I'd have to walk it to GTFO of this country. It's 37 hours straight walking for the record.
Do you absolutely need a passport? I can cross to the US with Everett without him having a passport
That's insane, why would you do that?
The UK isn't in Schengen, so it's full passport controls to enter & exit the UK.
That is zombie apocoplyse like talk.
My point re passports is only that I need a passport to get to the US but the kid doesn't because of age. Mind you that is by land.... not by air, and you are on an island... so yea....
I am honestly this concerned.
Food shortages mean looting and rioting. The Brits are not prepared for this in the slightest.
Oh and then there's the mass currency devaluation and liquidity controls that'll likely come in as well.
I figure if I can get to Dover, I can walk through the tunnel (assuming the trains are offline due to no-deal.
Say you get the passport, what would you do? You're tied economically to the UK.
OK that was nuts
What you just said
We're not really tied, no. Christina has a good job, and I have a good skill. I can work anywhere I want, and Christina can find work given her reputation. I'm not worried about us economically, aside from the savings I have in pouds.
I know you are mobile but I was thinking about Christina - academic jobs are not falling out of trees, but if you think you could then cool.
why not move your savings to Euros and Cdn?
I've been doing that, but we don't want to move everything just in case.
But I do have more here than I should. I keep putting it off whenever good news comes across the wire. It makes me think that I won't need to move it.
There was good news? It's been one shit show after the other.
It's incredible that things have fallen that much over there.
It depends on how this all plays out. With each rejection, we move closer both to no-deal *and* to repeal of Article 50. The hope is that as all the alternatives fall away: general election, 2nd referrendum, different deal... you're left with only 2 options: no-deal, and no-leave. The ECJ has already ruled that the UK can unilaterally repeal Article 50 at any point until they actually leave so... it could go either way.
They say that you're supposed to judge risk not just on the odds, but on the outcome of the alternatives. If one option is "Zombie Apocalypse" bad, and the other is "ok so we don't starve", then the rational thing to do is plan for the apocalpyse.
Really? The UK can just walk away from this without the EU's permission? Hmmmm the problem now is the deadline, there is not enough time for a referendum and/or election.
So yeah, that's what's happening over here. I hope your day is better.